2008/12/18
President-Elect Intelligencer 2008 December 18
Earlier this month, at a meeting of the National Governors Association, governors solicited Obama’s support for over $136 billion in projects. The governors’ proposal includes a lot of infrastructure improvements, which they say they can get started quickly and will create jobs (Obama pledges to work with governors on economy). The announcement of Obama’s support for the program sparked a rally in the price of some commodities (Shenk).
Foreign Affairs: Bolivia, Cuba
The advent of new administration is spurring many to push for a new approach to Cuba. Many are seeking to normalize relations with America’s Caribbean neighbor and see a potential for change under Obama (Chang, Richter).
Bolivian’s are also hoping Obama and their own new chief executive may be able to strike a friendlier pose. Bolivia is a source of coca (from which we get cocaine), a traditional crop of native Bolivians that has been a source of tension with the U.S. (Keane).
Nominations
Ambassador to the United Nations—Susan Rice
“Climate Czar”—Carol Browner, former Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator
Council of Environmental Quality Head—Nancy Sutley, deputy mayor of Los Angeles
EPA Administrator—Lisa Jackson, chief of staff for New Jersey Governor John Corzine
Secretary of Defence—Robert Gates, currently serving in this role
Secretary of Energy—Steven Chu, head of Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory
Secretary of Health and Human Services—Tom Daschle, former Senate majority leader (Beale; Muskal; Obama names environmental team; Obama names national security team; Raffaele).
War in Afghanistan
Obama is continuing his plan to refocus military efforts on Afghanistan, and reducing the American presence in Iraq, by adding 10,000 troops in the nation where the counterinsurgency effort has carried on for seven years. This addition is not expected to be as effective as the surge Iraq because Afghanistan has a less developed infrastructure, more rugged landscape, and insurgents receive support for groups in neighboring Pakistan (Gordon).
Sources
Beale, J. (2008 Dec. 7). US health reform gains momentum. BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7768608.stm, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Chang, J. (2008 Dec. 14). Shift in Cuba policy anticipated under Obama. Miami Herald. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/812398.html, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Gordon, M. (2008 Dec. 1). Afghan strategy poses stiff challenge for Obama. New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/02/world/asia/02strategy.html?_r=1&ref=us, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Keane, D. (2008 Dec. 15). Bolivians hope Obama, an outsider, heals US rift. Associated Press. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hK5_rh7E38XaUgK-_mwkeYCxyIrQD952M6LG0, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Muskal, M. (2008 Dec. 15). Obama announces choices for key environmental and energy posts. Los Angeles Times. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-obama16-2008dec16,0,2027165.story, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Obama names environmental team. (2008 Dec. 16). E-Mainstream. http://www.awwa.org/publications/MainStreamArticle.cfm?itemnumber=43696, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Obama names national security team including Clinton, Gates (2008 Dec. 2). Dallas Morning News. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/nation/stories/DN-cabinet_02nat.ART.State.Edition2.298e736.html, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Obama pledges to work with governors on economy. (2008 Dec. 2). CNN. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/02/transition.wrap/, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Raffaele, R. (2008 Dec. 8). Obama taps Susan Rice for UN ambassador position. Voice of America. http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-12-08-voa20.cfm, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Richter, P. (2008 Dec. 13). Obama presidency could change the rules on Cuba. Los Angeles Times. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fg-uscuba13-2008dec13,0,5895951.story, accessed 2008 Dec. 18.
Shenk, M. (2008 Dec. 8). Oil, copper rise for first time in seven days on Obama stimulus. Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=axxZdToCmBQU&refer=australia, accessed 2008 Dec. 19.
2008/09/26
McCain Intelligencer 2008 September 26
Supporters and opponents of embryonic stem cell research are concerned about McCain’s position. Opponents of the activity are concerned he may support it based on his voting record in the Senate. Proponents fear he may drop his support based on his selection of Palin and the strong plank to ban it in the Republican Party platform (Gaudiano).
Financial Markets
McCain said it was good that the government decided not to bail out Lehman Brothers and called for reform of disjointed federal financial regulation (Schroeder).
Fundraising
August has been the best month yet for McCain fundraising (Groppe).
Polls
A recent poll by the Siena Research Institute found that McCain is gaining in New York, but Obama still leads there (McCain gaining on Obama in New York). Another poll shows McCain leading in Ohio (Fargen). It’s a tie in Minnesota (Von Sternberg). For what its worth, he holds a lead among the Israeli Jewish population (Rosenfelder).
Social Security
McCain proposes to put place Social Security contributions into accounts that could be invested in the stock market. Obama calls the plan gambling (Acosta).
OI Comment: What McCain proposes is similar to what many people have now in their 401(k). Like other uninsured investments, this involves risk. It seems better to OI than Congress doing whatever it wants with the money with a shaky promise that it will pay the promised benefits somehow. It bears a strong resemblance to a Ponzi scheme; OI suspects it’s exactly that. Why not just drop the social security tax and let us do with the money as we will?
Sources
Acosta, J. (2008 Sept. 22). Obama: McCain wants to “gamble” with Social Security. CNN. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/22/social.security.candidates/, accessed 2008 Sept. 26.
Fargen, J. (2008 Sept. 15). Suffolk poll shows McCain leading Obama in Ohio. Boston Herald. http://news.bostonherald.com/news/national/politics/2008/view/2008_09_15_Suffolk_poll_shows_McCain_leading_Obama_in_Ohio/srvc=home&position=recent, accessed 2008 Sept. 16.
Gaudiano, N. (2008 Sept. 13). Advocates worry McCain support for embryonic research may waver. USA Today. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-12-stem-cells-mccain_N.htm, accessed 2008 Sept. 26.
Groppe, M. (2008 Sept. 22). August tops for McCain, Obama fundraising. Indianapolis Star. http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080922/NEWS05/80922039, accessed 2008 Sept. 26.
McCain gaining on Obama in New York. (2008 Sept. 15). Buffalo Business First. http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/stories/2008/09/15/daily6.html, accessed 2008 Sept. 16.
Rosenfelder, S. (2008 Sept. 15). JPost.com readers favor McCain over Obama. Jerusalem Post. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221467181669&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull, accessed 2008 Sept. 16.
Schroeder, R. (2008 Sept. 15). Wall Street crisis spurs talk on campaign trail. Market Watch. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mccain-obama-urge-reform-wall/story.aspx?guid=%7BEB116219-02C3-4C44-9C94-34BF5B366A4A%7D&dist=msr_1, accessed 2008 Sept. 16.
Von Sternberg, B. (2008 Sept. 15). Minnesota poll: Obama, McCain are dead even in state. Minneapolis Star-Tribune. http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28353589.html?elr=KArks7PYDiaK7DUoaK7D_V_eDc87DUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU, accessed 2008 Sept. 26.
2008/07/15
Obama Intelligencer 2008 July 15
Obama criticized the Karzai government of Afghanistan for not doing enough to implement the basic functions of government and stabilize the nation. He also criticized the Bush administration for dividing its efforts, diverting resources to Iraq and allowing al-Queda and the Taliban to regroup in Afghanistan (Obama says he would execute bin-Laden). The candidate has long opposed the war in Iraq, having made it an issue in the primaries. He has proposed reducing forces in a Iraq, leaving enough to help fight al-Queda, within 16 months and adding as many as 10,000 troops to Afghanistan (Hall & Nichols).
Health Care
Obama proposed a tax credit for small businesses for up to 50 percent of the premiums they pay on behalf of their employees (Roug).
Poll: Opinion of Obama shifts from “about right” to “too liberal”
A Gallup poll show that from February to June, opinions of Obama have shifted more toward that he is too liberal. Still, the most common response was “about right” (43 percent in June) (Morales).
Resources
Morales, L. (2008 July 11). Fewer Americans See McCain, Obama Views as “About Right.” Gallup. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108775/Fewer-Americans-See-McCain-Obama-Views-About-Right.aspx, accessed 2008 July 15.
Hall, C., & Nichols, H. (2008 July 14). Obama Urges Shifting Focus From Iraq to Afghanistan (Update1). Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aE6JSzRJpiw0&refer=home, accessed 2008 July 15.
Obama says he would execute bin-Laden. (2008 July 12). Birmingham Star. http://story.birminghamstar.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/420d9e49bcaa69d0/id/381452/cs/1/, accessed 2008 July 14.
Roug, L. (2008 July 14). Obama proposes health care tax credits for small businesses. Los Angeles Times. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign14-2008jul14,0,7130939.story, accessed 2008 July 15.
2008/06/12
Major Candidate Comparison
Abortion
McCain
-Opposes with limited exceptions.
Obama
-Favors.
Energy
McCain
-Generally opposes subsidy and tax credit programs, seeing them mainly as favors to special interests
-Favors allowing market solutions to energy problems
-Favors development of nuclear power
--Called for construction of 45 new nuclear power plants by 2030
--Favors Yucca Mountain nuclear waste storage plan
-Has supported allowing new offshore drilling for oil, but has not been consistent in this position
Obama
-Favors federal government investment in alternative fuels and energy technologies
--Has close ties to ethanol producers, particularly corn ethanol
-Proposes funding of alternative fuels programs
-Favors development of nuclear power contingent on development of safer ways to dispose of waste
--Opposes Yucca Mountain nuclear waste storage plan
-Initally opposed offshore drilling for oil, but later made provisions for it in energy plan
Environment
McCain
-Air & Climate
--Long supported climate change measures
--Favors 60 percent reduction in emissions by 2050
--Supports nuclear power development as part of climate change response
--Favors incentives for development of hybrid and other low-emissions automobiles
Obama
-Air & Climate
--Favors 80 percent reduction in emissions by 2050
--Favors cap and trade proposals
--Favors incentives for development of hybrid and other low-emissions automobiles
Health Care
McCain
-Proposes tax credit for health care for individuals and families.
Obama
-Aims for universal coverage through employer supplemented programs providing benefits similar to those received by federal employees.
-Proposes a tax credit for small businesses for up to 50 percent of the premiums they pay on behalf of their employees.
Iran
McCain:
-Opposes direct talks.
-Supports sanctions.
Obama:
-Supports direct diplomatic contact; scaled back from early position of face-to-face talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Taxes
McCain
-Previously opposed Bush tax cuts, now proposes to make them permanent.
-Calls for 25 percent cut in corporate taxes.
-Calls for balanced federal budget.
Obama
-Calls for increased taxes for some, tax breaks for others.
Trade
McCain
-Free trade supporter.
-Supports free trade agreement with Colombia.
Obama
-Proposes to renegotiate NAFTA to include environmental and labor standards.
-Opposes proposed free trade agreement with Colombia,
War in Iraq
McCain:
-Supported war.
-Critical of Bush handling.
-Opposes troop withdrawal.
-Early proponent of surge.
-Anticipates long-term American presence in Iraq, eventually as peacekeepers.
Obama:
-Consistently opposed war.
-Opposed surge.
-Calls for withdrawal by end of 2009.
Resources
Bender, M. (2008 June 21). Crist risks gree, bipartisan monikers with drilling stance. Palm Beach Post. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/state/epaper/2008/06/21/m1a_oil_0622.html, accessed 2008 June 24.
Chozik, A. (2008 August 4). Obama offers support for offshore drilling. Wall Street Journal, p. A4. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121769917863707497.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox, accessed 2008 August 5.
Fahys, J. (2008 Oct. 17). McCain and Obama’s environmental policy differences a matter of degree. Salt Lake Tribune. http://www.sltrib.com/News/ci_10710346, accessed 2008 Oct. 30.
Hertsgaard, M. (2008, June 8). Taking climate change seriously—finally. CBS News (The Nation). http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/06/opinion/main4160120.shtml, accessed June 9, 2008.
How do McCain and Obama match up? (2008, June 9). Dallas Morning News (Trail blazers blog). http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/06/how-do-mccain-and-obama-match.html, accessed June 9, 2008.
Nasaw, D. (2008 June 23). U.S. elections: McCain plugs in to electric cars. The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/23/johnmccain.uselections2008, accessed 2008 June 24.
Nasaw, D. (2008 June 23). U.S. elections: Where McCain and Obama stand on environmental issues. The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/23/johnmccain.barackobama, accessed 2008 June 24.
Power, S. (2008, June 9). In energy policy, McCain, Obama, differ on role of government. Wall Street Journal, p. A2. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121296676181055711.html?mod=googlenews_wsj, accessed June 9, 2008.
Rescue the trade deal. (2008 June 5). [Editorial]. Palm Beach Post. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/content/opinion/epaper/2008/07/05/a10a_colombia_edit_0705.html, accessed 2008 June 7.
Rhee, F. (2008, June 23). Obama, McCain go after each other on energy. Boston Globe. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/06/obama_mccain_go.html, accessed 2008 June 24.
Rohter, L. (2008 June 23). Obama camp closely linked with ethanol. New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/23/us/politics/23ethanol.html?_r=2&th=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&emc=th&adxnnlx=1214215415-yB7fDlhMP0kFgLEGHZ7f8Q&oref=slogin, accessed 2008 June 24.
Rosetta, L. (2008 Oct. 18). Health care: Utahns see good, bad and risky in McCain and Obama plans. Salt Lake Tribune. http://www.sltrib.com/News/ci_10710537, accessed 2008 Oct. 30.
Roug, L. (2008 July 14). Obama proposes health care tax credits for small businesses. Los Angeles Times. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-campaign14-2008jul14,0,7130939.story, accessed 2008 July 15.
Watt, N. (2008, June 9). Globalization needs America. America needs globalization. Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/09/economics.useconomy, accessed June 9, 2008.
Obama Intellegencer 2008 June 12
Senator Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign and officially endorsed Obama on June 7, 2008. There is speculation about what level of support, if any, Clinton supporters will provide to Obama (Political bulletin).
Swing States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania; Economic Policy and Health Care
Obama launched a tour of 17 swing states on June 9, 2008. He was expected to speak about economic issues including the price of health care and gas prices (Ward & Luce).
Vice-Presidential Speculation
Montana Governor Napolitano and Kansas Governor Kathleen Sibelius have been mentioned as potential running mates for Obama (Bigger battles ahead).
Vote Groups: Moderate and Evangelical Christians
Obama’s campaign plans to add a full-time staffer to concentration on evangelicals. They hope to draw moderates by addressing some of the newer issues of concern to these groups (Luo).
War in Iraq
The “surge” in Iraq appears to be having good results: fewer American casualties and greater stability of the government. This would seem to improve the standing of McCain, who supported the surge. However, it is expected that Obama will emphasize the lack of political progress, even in light of the military successes (Baram).
Obama has consistently opposed the war in Iraq. He made this an issue in the Democratic primaries and caucuses, particularly in contrasting himself with Clinton.
Resources
Baram, M. (2008, June 9). Will good news in Iraq affect Obama vs. McCain? ABC News. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=5017532&page=1, accessed June 9, 2008.
Bigger battles ahead. (2008, June 9). Economist. http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11524787, accessed June 9, 2008.
Luo, M. (2008, June 9). McCain extends his outreach, but Evangelicals are still wary. New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/us/politics/09mccain.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin, accessed June 9, 2008.
Political bulletin. (2008, June 9). U.S. News & World Report. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080609.htm, accessed June 9, 2008.
Ward, A., & Luce, E. (2008, June 8). Obama embarks on tour of swing states. Financial Times. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2950b7b4-358d-11dd-998d-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1, accessed June 9, 2008.